Top 10 Reasons China Won’t Be The World’s Next Superpower
China is an amazing country. One of the oldest continuing
civilizations on Earth, it has gone from a centuries-old, primarily
agrarian society to an industrial economic powerhouse. In
the span of 50 years, the reforms that China has put in place
have made it the second-largest economy on Earth, and it is
soon expected to eclipse the US as the largest. With their
sheer numbers, strong economy,[1] and rapidly growing
military, the Chinese have drawn the attention and, in some
respects, concern of the world. Many people now believe
it’s just a matter of time before the country takes over as
the next major global superpower.
civilizations on Earth, it has gone from a centuries-old, primarily
agrarian society to an industrial economic powerhouse. In
the span of 50 years, the reforms that China has put in place
have made it the second-largest economy on Earth, and it is
soon expected to eclipse the US as the largest. With their
sheer numbers, strong economy,[1] and rapidly growing
military, the Chinese have drawn the attention and, in some
respects, concern of the world. Many people now believe
it’s just a matter of time before the country takes over as
the next major global superpower.
While that could be the case someday, there are many
reasons to believe that it may not be, as there are several
serious issues holding China back. Until (and if) these
issues can be addressed, it is unlikely that the country
will take over anytime soon as the most dominant power
on Earth, either militarily or economically. Here are the
top ten reasons why China will not take over the world.
reasons to believe that it may not be, as there are several
serious issues holding China back. Until (and if) these
issues can be addressed, it is unlikely that the country
will take over anytime soon as the most dominant power
on Earth, either militarily or economically. Here are the
top ten reasons why China will not take over the world.
10Pollution
It’s no secret that China has a serious pollution problem. Since its
rapid industrialization began in the 1950s, China has reached the
point where health scientists estimate it claims 1.6 million lives per year (approximately 4,000 people per day).[2] As other nations had delays
in starting production due to environmental restraints and regulations,
China built factories without concern for the long-term environmental consequences. As foreign demand for cheaper products made in
China soared, so did the creation of factories required to produce
them.
In some of the most heavily polluted areas, simply breathing is
equivalent to smoking 40 cigarettes per day. With almost half
the entire population living within the major (and often most
polluted) metropolitan regions, the dire consequences to public
health and the need to reverse the damage presents a serious
setback for the country.
equivalent to smoking 40 cigarettes per day. With almost half
the entire population living within the major (and often most
polluted) metropolitan regions, the dire consequences to public
health and the need to reverse the damage presents a serious
setback for the country.
9Overpopulation
As of September 2017, the population of China stands at over 1.3
billion people.[3]Although the country is geographically the fourth
largest in the world, approximately 20 percent of the entire global
population lives inside its borders. This places an enormous strain
on its natural resources, particularly when living standards rise,
and thus, demand for resources increases.
billion people.[3]Although the country is geographically the fourth
largest in the world, approximately 20 percent of the entire global
population lives inside its borders. This places an enormous strain
on its natural resources, particularly when living standards rise,
and thus, demand for resources increases.
Although certain measures have been put in place to help curtail
the exploding population (such as the nearly 40-year-old one-child
policy, which was officially lifted in 2016), it seems likely that China
will become more dependent on foreign resources to meet its needs.
the exploding population (such as the nearly 40-year-old one-child
policy, which was officially lifted in 2016), it seems likely that China
will become more dependent on foreign resources to meet its needs.
8Demographics
China is facing a demographic nightmare. As fertility rates have
decreased and after decades of the one-child policy, the country
is getting very old very fast. After the one-child policy was officially
lifted in 2016, many couples were now found to only want one child
or didn’t plan to have any at all. According to theUnited Nations,
China may have as much as 44 percent of its population retired
by 2050.[4]
decreased and after decades of the one-child policy, the country
is getting very old very fast. After the one-child policy was officially
lifted in 2016, many couples were now found to only want one child
or didn’t plan to have any at all. According to theUnited Nations,
China may have as much as 44 percent of its population retired
by 2050.[4]
Unless they can attract Chinese youth back to the country from afar
(which, as you will soon see, is itself another major obstacle), a
massive strain will be placed on the younger working population
to sustain China’s social services, especially considering that the
country is a socialist state.
(which, as you will soon see, is itself another major obstacle), a
massive strain will be placed on the younger working population
to sustain China’s social services, especially considering that the
country is a socialist state.
7Wealth Distribution
Although China has had very impressive continuous growth for
many years now, a significant segment of the population still
lives in poverty.[5] Since the early 1980s, millions have seen
their standard of living dramatically increase, yet while the economy
is growing, there are many millions without electricity or adequate
drinking water. It will still require a significant amount of time and
investment before China’s population as a whole will catch up
and be wealthy by the standards of other developed nations.
many years now, a significant segment of the population still
lives in poverty.[5] Since the early 1980s, millions have seen
their standard of living dramatically increase, yet while the economy
is growing, there are many millions without electricity or adequate
drinking water. It will still require a significant amount of time and
investment before China’s population as a whole will catch up
and be wealthy by the standards of other developed nations.
6Wage Increases
While the middle class has exploded in China,[6] the expectations
have increased, as more Chinese will expect better pay, which in
turn will eventually make their products more expensive for consumers.
While countries such as Japan and Korea have still exported an
enormous amount of goods as their salaries have increased, the
quality of these goods has been high, which, in turn, kept demand
high. Although the “workshop of the world” exports many goods,
they are largely inexpensive because of their poor quality.
have increased, as more Chinese will expect better pay, which in
turn will eventually make their products more expensive for consumers.
While countries such as Japan and Korea have still exported an
enormous amount of goods as their salaries have increased, the
quality of these goods has been high, which, in turn, kept demand
high. Although the “workshop of the world” exports many goods,
they are largely inexpensive because of their poor quality.
Eventually, when the standard of living goes up, the population
will expect higher wages, which will inevitably drive up the cost of
production, making the products they export too expensive. This
will likely result in companies eventually pulling out of the country
in search of cheaper nations, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh,
to produce their goods.
will expect higher wages, which will inevitably drive up the cost of
production, making the products they export too expensive. This
will likely result in companies eventually pulling out of the country
in search of cheaper nations, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh,
to produce their goods.
5Regional Tensions
There are several regions (such as Tibet and Hong Kong) within
China that are demanding more autonomy, which requires the
country to devote a significant amount of resources to ensuring
political stability within its borders.[7] Until they can attain a
certain level of regional stability as well as control an increasing
desire from the general population for more freedom, their foreign
ambitions will be hampered.
China that are demanding more autonomy, which requires the
country to devote a significant amount of resources to ensuring
political stability within its borders.[7] Until they can attain a
certain level of regional stability as well as control an increasing
desire from the general population for more freedom, their foreign
ambitions will be hampered.
4Emigration
Unlike the former Soviet Union, if you wish to emigrate from
China, you are free to do so. The only issue appears to be
related to money. This poses a rather serious problem for
China, as a recent report indicated that as many as 50 percent
of the wealthiest Chinese citizens are considering moving out
of the country to places such as the US, Australia, and Canada.[8]
So even if China succeeds in raising its living standards, they
face the challenge of then convincing a considerable number of
their citizens to stay. Problems previously mentioned such as
pollution, overcrowding, and restrictions to personal freedom
make moving a tempting option to a very important segment of
the population. When they leave, they take their wealth with them,
leaving what is referred to a wealth drain, a loss in tax revenue
and investment within their borders.
face the challenge of then convincing a considerable number of
their citizens to stay. Problems previously mentioned such as
pollution, overcrowding, and restrictions to personal freedom
make moving a tempting option to a very important segment of
the population. When they leave, they take their wealth with them,
leaving what is referred to a wealth drain, a loss in tax revenue
and investment within their borders.
3State-Owned Enterprises
Although private industry has grown considerably, a very sizeable
portion of the Chinese economy is still owned by the state.
Approximately 30 percent of their total assets (in both the
industrial and service sectors) are state-controlled. This may
lead to corruption and inefficiency, as subsidies can and are
used to prop up businesses which may otherwise be unable
to compete.
With competition comes innovation, which is essential to maintain
relevance in an increasingly high-tech, knowledge-based economy.
A whopping 50 percent of total industry in China is state-controlled.[9]
relevance in an increasingly high-tech, knowledge-based economy.
A whopping 50 percent of total industry in China is state-controlled.[9]
2Reform
China currently finds itself in the rather awkward position of having
a somewhat free-market economy while at the same time being a
socialist state.[10] As a result, they have a very big domestic
challenge ahead of them as they try to keep their economy free
and competitive globally in order to generate revenue to
improve the country overall and maintain a socialist state
domestically.
This can result in a very confusing vision of the future for China’s
citizens. As the middle class grows and their wealth increases,
class structure should become more evident, which is what
socialism is supposed to be against. A healthy free-market
economy is widely believed to only be able to sustain itself in
the long run if it is free of too much government intervention
and capable of competing globally, which is a challenge for a
one-party state.
citizens. As the middle class grows and their wealth increases,
class structure should become more evident, which is what
socialism is supposed to be against. A healthy free-market
economy is widely believed to only be able to sustain itself in
the long run if it is free of too much government intervention
and capable of competing globally, which is a challenge for a
one-party state.
1Military Issues
Although China has invested heavily in its military, and it is growing,
they are still behind the most powerful militaries in the world in terms
of equipment and training. It takes a great deal of money to equip
and train a military of China’s size. Widespread corruption coupled
with a lack of competition, overruns in costs, delays, issues enforcing
quality control, and monopolies in the defense industry place the
country at a serious disadvantage when it comes to acquiring new
technology. Its organizational structure is flawed as well, since the
primary objective of the People’s Liberation Army is the protection
and preservation of the more than 88 million members of the
Communist Party rather than the general public itself.
Equally important is the lack of combat experience, as China hasn’t
engaged in combat with a foreign enemy since Vietnam in 1979.
The lack of experience in comparison to countries such as the US,
UK, and Russia places China at a disadvantage.[11]
engaged in combat with a foreign enemy since Vietnam in 1979.
The lack of experience in comparison to countries such as the US,
UK, and Russia places China at a disadvantage.[11]
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